An Econometric Analysis of Egypt's Cereal Production and Environmental Emissions for Food Security

Abstract

Agricultural production substantially contributes to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions that intensify global climate change. The increasing population, rising food demand, decreasing arable land, and declining soil fertility due to excessive fertilizer use have created a significant challenge to food security, ultimately leading to resource exploitation and environmental degradation. Egypt's economy relies significantly on the agricultural sector, which accounted for roughly 14% of the nation's total GDP in 2023; concurrently, it plays a considerable role in climate change through greenhouse gas emissions that adversely affect the environment. This research aimed to analyze the relationship between GHG emissions and the agricultural sector using the ARDL method of cointegration from 1990 to 2021. The findings revealed that the agricultural sector is the primary source of GHG emissions in Egypt. The expansion of cultivated area will lead to environmental degradation due to increased greenhouse gas emissions in the short term, while cereal production and the enlargement of land for cereals will cause elevated greenhouse gas emissions in the long term due to the utilization of traditional agricultural practices. The study recommended increasing credit to farmers and augmenting agricultural investments to establish modern, environmentally sustainable agricultural systems that enhance production and ensure food security through the application of contemporary agricultural technologies.